The Mottled Umber on Thursday night brought the garden macro list up to 296, whilst the micros are just behind on 293. So - will 2011 see the garden moth list top 600, and if so will this be 300+ macros, 300+ micros or maybe both? I find predicting the next most likely moth species to turn up is a complete lottery. Whilst some relatively common species resolutely avoid reaching the garden, something entirely unexpected pops up. In fact the Mottled Umber is one that is both common and to some extent unexpected - there is no decent woodland close by, and for the main part of its flight period the conditions are not favourable for a wanderer.
I've considered what's not currently on the list, and in no order of precedence here are 25 micro and 25 macro species that should/could/may turn up. Some of these (like Coronet) are currently undergoing a population and distribution shift in VC55 so whilst they would have been unthinkable 5 years ago, it is now perhaps just a matter of time.
Before listing the species though - it's fair to say that I would be completely unsurprised if the next garden tick is not actually included in these lists ....
Variegated Golden Tortrix
Dark Marbled Carpet
Small Mottled Willow